The Long Tail of videogames

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.... Several commenters have pointed out that Nintendo's next game console, code-named Revolution, has a strong Long Tail aspect to it. It will be backwards compatible with all previous generations of Nintendo game consoles, from the current GameCube to the ancient NES. 

    What's the connection between backwards compatibility and the Long Tail? Well, the reason I haven't used videogames, despite it being a major media category, as a classic Long Tail example is that system compatibility is a major barrier to entry for all but the newest mainstream releases.

    Consoles are the biggest part of the game business (with the PC gaming market shrinking and the Mac market tiny) and the main console makers--Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo--still run that show with an iron fist. They decide which games will be released for their platforms (nominally to ensure quality control, but also to ensure that they get a cut of the revenues). Worse, their hardware enforces geographic region control, so you can't play import games unless you mod your box (voiding the warranty and possibly breaking the law).

    It's a classic bottleneck, even worse than movie theaters, and it has led to a pretty short tail of game offerings, at least compared to other media. However, all that's now changing in at least four ways: 

1. Nintendo's new console will not only be backwards compatible, it will be way backwards compatible. As the release puts it, "The console also will have downloadable access to 20 years of fan-favorite titles originally released for Nintendo 64, the Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) and even the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES)." Thanks to the fact that the original Nintendo Generation is now in their thirties and into 80s nostalgia, retro gaming is hot.  Archives = Long Tail. 


2. Microsoft is doing that one better with its XBox 360, which will have built-in access to an online marketplace that supports microtransactions, so you can buy (and sell?) everything from full games to virtual game characters, clothing, parts and features for as little as a few cents. On-demand game content and custom creations  = Long Tail. 


3. Cellphone gaming is taking off. Although at the moment it suffers from the distribution problem that the carriers (or, as Steve Jobs tastefully describes them, "the orifices") still control what you can download and play on your phone, cellphone games do have the Long Tail advantage of being simple and thus cheap to make. They harken back to the day of the bedroom coder and small teams who could create niche games on the cheap, then for open platforms such as the home computers of the 80s. Over time, the same technological forces that opened the Internet and felled the walled gardens will play out in the mobile market as well. Peer and niche production = Long Tail.


4. "Casual games" are booming. These are mostly quick and simple web-based games, ranging from poker to arcade-style fare, that can be found at such sites as Yahoo games, Real Arcade and Shockwave.com. Unlike the shareware model of independent PC games that was big a decade ago, these games typically don't require a download and install (aside from the common game platform software, such as Flash, that each site uses). This means that the game makers generally don't have to deal with the vagaries of each user's computer configuration, and the game players don't have to worry about viruses and other malware. That lowers the barrier to entry for both parties. Niche content aggregation = Long Tail.

Comments

[Greg]

It will probably be the price per game that determines whether or not the Revolution succeeds in selling Nintendo's back catalogue, but it certainly is an exciting idea. There are naysayers who will complain that Nintendo is just re-re-re-reselling their old games (which is certainly true, given the GBA versions, DS versions, classic collections, etc...), but having easy access to all those great games at the tap of a button puts that argument to rest.

And let me throw this out - just in case the right person is reading this! - Nintendo, and any other media company, should consider offering a subscription service that allows access to the whole library for a low monthly fee. I have a feeling the costs would quickly add up if you purchased all the old games that caught your eye. But then again, I guess that is the point...

[pwb]

This begs the quesiton: is there a market opportunity for game consoles, PVRs and mobile phones with none of the carrier lock-in?

[Bill]

I wrote a blog entry on exactly this topic as it relates to mobile games a few weeks ago. Note that Koreans appear to be playing 10x more games than the rest of. They have a huge mobile content library (copared to us) and are paying less per download than we are. Have a read...

http://www.barhydt.net/2005/05/why-are-koreans-playing-10x-more-games

[Edward Cotton]

It seems like this makes sense:

new platforms= mobile
new revenue streams=additonal content via x-box

However, could the new distribution model change the real economics of gaming?

Can new online game distribution allow $150 video games to be sold to niche audiences or 40 second "blipgames" to be sold for $1?

[Greg]

Edward:

If Valve's Half-Life 2 is any indication, new distribution methods will not lower the cost. They had an application called Steam that allowed you to download the game instead of purchasing it retail. While they had three options to choose from, the cheapest was $49.95. That is no cheaper than most new computer games. What's more, word on the street is Valve had much healthier profit margins on the Steam downloads compared to the retail box (because that went through a publisher).

In short, money money money.

[Alan Levine]

There's a tail for old computer games:

http://www.the-underdogs.org/

and a whole raft of emulators of classic arcade games, such as MAME:
http://www.mame.net/

or google on +emulate classic arcade games
http://www.google.com/search?q=%2Bemulate+classic+arcade+games