A Long Tail strategy for Arrested Development

Lost Remote suggests that Arrested Development should stop struggling to fit into Fox's mass-appeal broadcast model (it's perpetually at risk of cancellation, which now looks more likely than ever) and instead embrace a Long Tail strategy that better suits its niche appeal:

Here’s what "Arrested Development" and its producers should do once they are are free of the network shackles and retake ownership:

Offer the show online and on VOD every week for free

Make it a free video podcast  

Seed Bittorrent with it.

Set up a site that has all the shows right there, along with shorter-form content, ready to watch or download in all formats

Have the cast blog - in character. Have them do video blogs and even live webcasts in character, too

After each show, have viewers comment and then address their comments. Invite the best commenters to have a guest spot on the show

Heck - invite fans to shoot their own fan-fic shows. Celebrate “AD” as the first open-source sitcom

Web contests: “GET ARRESTED”! “George Bluth is hiding somewhere on the web. Clues are available both online and at geocaching locations. Find him, and you’ll be on a show - and not just in a cameo role - as the man who caught George!”

Find a title sponsor, but for just enough money to make a dent in your budget.

Then comes the money:

“Arrested Development” is already a proven, strong DVD seller. Put out DVDs with all the extra content you’ve created on the web. Don’t wait until after the season is done: put out a month’s worth of shows every four weeks on one DVD.

After four weeks, the video podcast version will cost 99 cents. The VOD version will be 49 cents after the initial month, for the rest of the year. After that, older episodes will be just a quarter.

Invite premium membership on your site for unlimited archival access and free podcast downloads, in addition to direct access via chats with stars. Auction walk-on parts on eBay

It will be a phenomenal success. There is one warning, however: “Arrested Development” will make so much money that the networks will try to woo it back. Under no circumstances should the show make that mistake.

Great post; great blog. If you're into the future of TV, it's well worth subscribing to its feed.

Comments

[Brandon]

Looks like they'll get their chance. It was cancelled last Friday. Bah.

[Bluehoo]

I'd pay if they offered me a version w/o the Ron Howard voice over.

[Steve Safran]

Thanks for the shoutout. I hadn't even considered that what I was outlining was a "Long Tail" strategy. You're absolutely right, though. Thanks for making the connection. I'm a big believer in Long Tail, and I'm pleased to see you give my Arrested Development plan the LT seal of approval, however accidental my planning may have been.

[cait]

This is what the makers of "Angel" should have done but didn't have the wit to organise. It was a hell of a high quality production values show so it might have been a tad too expensive to do.

I'm fascinated by the idea of TV show DVD's becoming something akin to subscription comics, however. Perhaps the DVD once a month idea could work - I see a whole new market ahead! Quick, patent the idea!

[Tim]

shows as video data, not broadcast waves;
Tivo/DVR/iPod replaces the receiver;
TV-Anywhere (see BBC R&D) or other content identification system for some metadata;
Add a user tagging/reputation system.

The world of asynchronous media enjoyment.

The only remaining problem? No more "water cooler" discussions of "last night's" show when everyone watches it at a different time.

[david sutherland]

Sounds good/interesting in theory but where are the financial breakdowns? Provide the hard work of financial research that just start to prove that it's a potentially good idea.

I mean as an idea w/o any financial analysis you might as say, just keep making the show and since it's so popular set up a paypal account and ask for a donation based on how much people make. I mean, sure, great... but really, by eliminating the first run income and focusing on "long tail" income only is it qualifiably reasonable that the bills could be paid?

What does it cost to produce an episode? What are the current TV to DVD sales, for instance, of the recent friends 10-season release?

[Jim Rockford]

No. The economics are all wrong.

Production cost of TV shows runs to about 3 million per hour; which makes AD about 1.5 million or so.

There is just no way for a show like that to survive outside the mainstream broadcast model because there is no way to cover the production costs and generate a profit.

The long tail strategy consistently forgets that production costs exist. Current models for production of TV shows REQUIRES the prospect of hits that generate a lot of money. Most production companies produce at a deficit (licensing covers say about HALF the production cost) and hope to make a bundle down the road with syndication and DVD sales. Coupled with the high rate of failure (about 85% of new shows are cancelled) this makes the TV production strategy a high-risk/reward business just like Movies (lots of flops like Stealth, a few mega-mega-mega hits like LoTR and Spider-Man make the profits). For example CSI is projected to pull in about 1.5 billion in revenue.

Currently, syndication and DVD sales are slowing considerably, making this even less likely. To cover the costs of production, AD would require 750,000 downloads at $2 a pop. I seriously doubt that market exists. At a "hard-core fanbase" of 100,000 ... there's a price point of $15 per episode. [DVD sales slowed from about 24% annual increase over the last three years (averaged) to about 7% projected for 2005; Syndication sales are reportedly ALSO in trouble. In both cases it seems the market is saturated, once consumers have 100 DVDs or so the incentive to buy one more is low; if you already bought Friends for syndication why buy AD?]

Reality is that niche programming to be successful MUST HAVE extremely low production costs. Music probably CAN adapt to this, if a band can purchase recording equipment for about $3,000 and spread it across say ten songs and DIY the recording process themselves.

Filmed entertainment will NEVER get that far until the model changes to a DIY low cost solution and the upside is attractive enough to entice between-projects actors, writers, and producers who can compete on quality with mainstream projects.

[Brett Shomaker]

Sadly, Jim Rockford's comments are correct. TV quality live action video content probably can't be produced at a low enough cost to justify the initial investment. The only way this would work with AD is if they sold the existing shows in the manner described by the original blog post - probably won't work for new content.

Jim mentions that music might be able to adapt to the LT model, but not TV. Another genre that might do well with the LT model is very low cost animation (I'm thinking specifically of machinima - Red vs. Blue anyone?).

[Oscar]

It's the funniest show on television, or at least it's tied for the funniest--with The Office. As a fellow Oscar, I take it personally when I see Oscar Bluth go down, even if he is a big fat fraud.

[Matt]

Im a user of Peer Impact who just announced a deal with NBC unviersal to carry Video on demand they are also launching a platform for all content providers so they can ingest thier content into the system without too much hassle so a show like Arseted Development could live on a walled garden p2p network generating revenue for its creators as long as consumers are interested they could even generate revenue from targeted streamed advertising within the programing if they wanted to offer the show for "free"

[Larry Lapiruv]

Agree... but with one modification...

The show should be offered on Veoh rather than Bit Torrent or their web site. Veoh is a new Internet Television Network that lets anyone do what the article suggests. (create their own shows and offer them to the world for free or for a cost). I am putting up a show right now that I produced (a small documentary about the Democratic Party). Veoh is at http://www.veoh.com

[Sean]

It's just TV. There are more meaningful LT discussions to be had. Drop the fanboi stuff and move on...

[timkitchin]

Great post. Long Tail movie-making and TV making is a serious prospect...