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April 10, 2006

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» Long Tail from Perceptric Forum
Chris Anderson has an update on his Long Tail data regarding the peak hit value in the music business. If you are intererested in the record biz you really should read this... [Read More]

Comments

Tom

Would it look better if you showed a five degree polynomial which didn't have to end on a massive downward gradient not supported by the data points?

Will Page

Chris,

Some loose thoughts...

Can we get more information on how the inflation was stripped out of the data please? I've looked at this for a while and what strikes me is that you've had deflation (at the retail end) of music sales for the past few years, with the price of a new 'hit' CD dropping from a peak of £13 in the late 90's to only £7 today.

This made me think again about how to use delators on the data as its not a consistent trend - price levels are moving up as well as down. Then I thought about what it is you might actually want to deflate - the retail price value of the CD (now falling), the wholesale cost of producing the CD (...who knows whats happening there?) or - better still - the profit margin of the music industry (...okay).

With no clear trend in the direction of price, perhaps it would be better to 'Follow the Money' - that is the only money that matters, profits. If it was possible to strip inflation out of time series data on profits of hits (or majors), then this might be a good 'real terms' illustration of Long Tail effects over time.

Will Page

PS: The very best of luck with the book, cant wait - I've got my advance order in!

csven

Right on track.

Walter Lounsbery

I violently disagree with fitting variational data like this with high degree polynomials. The data cries out for smoothing, or at worst one of those arbitrary moving averages (which introduces smoothing and lag). What if the latest data is off a bit? Screws up the interpretation. And how did we manage to get curves that appear to end in 2007? Not buying this conclusion, but I really like the blog...

christmas shopping

Nice analysis .. But i am not so agree with the chart of hit albums to industry sales. It is little bit misguiding by my point of view.

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Tidbits

The Long Tail by Chris Anderson

Notes and sources for the book

FREE was available in all digital forms--ebook, web book, and audiobook--for free shortly after the hardcover was published on July 7th. The ebook and web book were free for a limited time and limited to certain geographic regions as determined by each national publisher; the unabridged MP3 audiobook (get zip file here) will remain free forever, available in all regions.

Order the hardcover now!