Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is still a blockbuster, of course, but it's fading badly in its second weekend. Maybe my tipster was on to something about those tactics to inflate opening weekend numbers. From Deadline Hollywood:
With only a $18.4 million haul (down 57%) the Disney pic is expected to take in only $58.4 mil its 2nd weekend out. That's much lower than the expected mid-$70s mil gross which rival studios predicted. And it's somewhat surprising, considering that the Johnny Depp starrer broke records with its all-time opening weekly gross of $196.0 million. Box office gurus tell me the downturn may be due to watercooler talk: how the sequel doesn't live up to expectations generated by the first Pirates installment.
UPDATE: the final numbers for the weekend showed that it took in $62.3 million, down 54%. That's still very good, of course, but not quite what had been hoped. As I say in the book, blockbusters still rule, they're just ruling slightly less.
I noticed the numbers on Box Office Mojo this morning. I was very suprised to see its Friday numbers below the 20 million mark.
What was that line from Enoutrage..."There is a certain star who bought 2 million tickets so he would open the weekend number one."
I guess I will go back to YouTube, and watch people break stuff and lip sync. Thank you for the long tail.
Posted by: Jason | July 15, 2006 at 04:33 PM
A very pretty girl invited me to watch this. Having seen the Ninja's negative review, I declined.
Posted by: Mike Abundo | July 15, 2006 at 10:38 PM
Hi Chris,
Not only is this an interesting follow-on with your larger theory of the disappearance of the MassMarket Hit, but I think this example is also part of the growing trend away from theatrical entertainment, as more people buy home entertainment systems that rival large-screen experiences. The HDTV/DVR/Media Center is in its infancy, of course, but it's a growing consumer trend (along with the technological one of Moore's Law - people being able to do more with their CPU's due to increased, affordable processing power) which I believe will help fuel digital media purchases on demand. Many of these currently fall under the "Long Tail" category, of course, but many do not. It will be fascinating to see how Hollywood and Broadcasters react to the rapidly changing market conditions.
Posted by: Megan Cunningham | July 17, 2006 at 10:19 AM
According to boxoffice mojo, it made 62M on its second weekend. That may be a sinking of 50%, but it's still a huge amount of money for a second weekend.
Posted by: Roman Levin | July 17, 2006 at 10:24 AM
Chris,
Can you send me an email? I don't have your address. I want to show you my draft of what I'm going to blog about TLT.
Thanks,
Guy Kawasaki
kawasaki at garage.com
Posted by: Guy Kawasaki | July 17, 2006 at 11:40 AM
I think the opposite is an easier case to make. For starters, the 10 day day gross is a record. Some are speculating that it will be the first sequel and only third movie to top $1b worldwide.
The "hit" is alive and well.
Posted by: pwb | July 17, 2006 at 01:09 PM
Yeah, good ol water cooler talk. I was planning on seeing this opening night but the girlfriend had a party to go to so i went with her a was going to check out the movie this past weekend. After hearing all the negative reviews and such it really discouraged me from watching it. I will watch once it comes out on DVD. No need to spend a night and 20 bucks for something i may or may not like.
Without the water cooler effect i would have already seen this movie.
Posted by: hornswaggled | July 17, 2006 at 02:52 PM
A negative watercooler effect? What a gross misinterpretation of the numbers. For a movie to make $62MM in its 2nd weekend is unreal. A 50% drop-off is expected and likely helped along by the theatres themselves who are making room for new movies.
Posted by: Essen | July 20, 2006 at 03:19 PM