Hollywood: The Year of Not Enough Blockbusters

Hollywood has been the last refuge of the hit, the one industry that seemed to be able to resist the force of gravity dragging down blockbusters everywhere else. This year's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which set a box office record in its opening weekend, seemed to prove that the movie-making business still had the gift of mobilizing mass audiences. But no other film this year has done nearly as well, and when you look at the industry at large, the year so far isn't looking good at all. Total ticket sales (in tickets, not dollars) are down 9% from 2004, and it if weren't for Pirates, they'd be down 15%. The last refuge isn't looking so safe anymore.

Source: BoxOfficeMojo (YTD calculations with numbers of tickets require a subscription) 

Comments

[Brian Brown]

So...is Hollywood giving us bad movies? Is technology providing other options? Is it global warming?

Personally, I think Hollywood relies way too heavily on formula-type movies. This includes any sequel, and any movie that relies on their star's name carrying the box office.

If a little more emphasis was placed on writing and directing, Hollywood would have a much better long term outlook.

IMHO.

[Chris Stiles]

Er .. what is the effect on other years of discounting the effect of the biggest blockbuster?

[Phillip Marzella]

I think this is broader than Hollywood films. It may include all films distributed in the US, including studio fare.

IMHO, there are several effects causing this.

Better home entertainment that means people get DVDs instead of schlepping it to the nearest theatre. And online entertainment choices – YouTube, Myspace, Google Video.

Phillip

[Harry]

Do you seriously think YouTube can be replacement to cinema movies? TV maybe. Movies no way.
Blame the overplayed Hollywood recipes and yes definitely the richer experience one can enjoy at home.

[Hashim]

I don't see a trend. I see one bad year.

[Chris Anderson]

Chris Stiles,

I'm afraid I won't have that data until the end of the year. The Year-To-Date data at BoxOfficeMojo from previous years is only available on the overall market level, not individual films. But I can certainly make a pretty good stab at it once we have the full-year numbers for 2006.

[Chris Anderson]

Harry,

No, I don't think this has anything to do with YouTube (I'm a bit confused by the question, since I didn't mention YouTube in the post). I think it's more due to the rise of DVDs, big screens and surround-sound home theater, along with more competing entertainment options overall. The fact that word-of-mouth can spread so fast now, counteracting the power of marketing for films that don't live up to their hype (ie, most of them), is probably a factor, too.

Chris

[JS Bangs]

Erm, isn't the title of Pirate of the Caribbean 2 supposed to be Dead Man's Chest? Thus spake IMDB.

[Chris Anderson]

Hashim,

Well, it may not be a trend, but it's two years, not one. All things being equal, Box Office in terms of numbers of ticket should at least keep up with population growth of 1%/year. (Actually, it's more related to population growth under 25, since that's the age group that watches movies most. Due to immigration, that population has been growing faster than the overall national number).

Chris

[Chris Anderson]

JS,

Good catch! Now fixed...

-c

[Lewis Tierney]

Hi Chris. While the 100MM ticket drop from 2004 to 2006 is most likely “significant”, the number of movies may not be – my back of the envelop calc is that 100MM tickets equals 6.25 blockbuster movies, which easily could be absorbed in the Fall/Holiday season. At the end of ’06, it would make sense to confirm that the studios haven’t shifted their “time of year” strategy over the years.

One way to check on the possible shift would be to track ad dollars the studios are spending on a monthly basis from 2002 to 2006 and overlay it on ticket sales. This should help determine if the studios are focused more on the back half of the year today than in prior years – and give a sense of ad spendings correlation to ticket sales, if there is any.

-Lewis

[GADSDEN]

The fair graph would include the highest-grossing movie from each year (was PitC in fact the highest-grossing?). I have no access to these numbers, but shame, shame, shame on you for giving such a glib analysis. I (genuinely) hope you're right, but bad data helps nobody. Ugh.

And your CAPTCHA is waaaaay too hard to read.

[Chris Anderson]

Gasden,

If you want more date, just follow the link. That's why I link to the source, so you can see all the data and make up your own mind. It's just a click away--sheesh.

Chris