"A practical model for analyzing Long Tails"

The current edition of the peer-reviewed web research journal First Monday has a fascinating article on Long Tail statistical models by Kalevi Kilkki, a Principal Scientist at Nokia Siemens Networks, Finland. He takes data from markets that range from books and movies to web searches and names, and tests them against a classic Long Tail powerlaw model. By and large, they fit nicely .(Which isn't a surprise, since the observation that much of economics and human affairs can be described by a powerlaw goes all the way back to the "80/20 Rule" insights of Vilfredo Pareto in the 19th Century.)

I've just had a chance to skim it, so I won't say more than it looks well worth reading for the quantitative amongst you. My only criticism on this first pass is that in several markets, such as movie box office revenues, Kilkki does not really address distribution bottlenecks, such as the limited number of screens available. Instead, he blames the rapid fall-off of revenues on limited marketing, which is only part of the picture, so to speak.

[Thanks to Barry Ritholtz for the link]

Comments

[Adam]

I think it can also be blamed on inflexibility of pricing. After all, why should every movie be the same price? Why should I pay the same amount to see Spiderman 3, a box office hit, that I do to see Aqua Teen Hunger Force?

Seems to me that the theaters could attract more customers if they didn't just charge a flat rate across the board.

[sean]

Thanks that was great post. and Adam, i agree on ur comment about visiting theatres.

[Nils Wiberg]

On a related topic: do you consider the 80/20-rule to applicable to reasearch and developement. I.e. 20 percent of a companies' reseach and developement investments generates 80 percent of the returns?

[Hustler Magazine]

Hawk notes another glitch in the matrix as we move from the broadcast to the on-demand era. The results of reality TV shows are considered "news" and show up in the headlines of the major portals (so too for sports scores). But many who watch via a DVR haven't seen it yet and it ruins the surprise. "I decided that the only way to prevent Yahoo! from spoiling sports and other shows was to never go to their homepage -- hence, no more Yahoo! search for me."

[wow powerleveling]

In 1988, a British mountain climber named Joe Simpson wrote a book called Touching the Void, a harrowing account of near death in the Peruvian Andes. It got good reviews but, only a modest success, it was soon forgotten. Then, a decade later, a strange thing happened. Jon Krakauer wrote Into Thin Air, another book about a mountain-climbing tragedy, which became a publishing sensation. Suddenly Touching the Void started to sell again.

Random House rushed out a new edition to keep up with demand. Booksellers began to promote it next to maple story powerlevelingtheir Into Thin Air displays, and sales rose further. A revised paperback edition, which came out in January, spent 14 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. That same month, IFC Films released a docudrama of the story to critical acclaim. Now Touching the Void outsells Into Thin Air more than two to one.

[kabin]

thanks...
Kabin
Konteyner