Where to run the One Machine?

In the new issue of Wired, Kevin Kelly has written another one of his patented mind grenades: the observation that the Internet has now hit approximate computational equivalence to a single human brain:

A hyperlink is much like a synapse in the brain. Both work by making associations between nodes. Each unit of thinking in the brain — an idea, for example — grows by gaining links to other thoughts. The greater the number of synapses connecting to an idea, the stronger it becomes. Similarly, the more heavily linked a Web node is, the greater its value to the Machine. Moreover, the number of hyperlinks in the World Wide Web is approaching that of synapses in the human brain. But the Machine contains a million times more transistors than you have neurons in your head. And, unlike your brain, it's growing at a rate that outpaces Moore's law. By 2040, the planetary computer will attain as much processing power as all 7 billion human brains on Earth.

The full piece is here, along with a nifty animated version of the fold-out graphic that's running in the print magazine. But it's just a hint of where Kevin's going as he contemplates the increasing ability to treat the world's computational resources as one, what's often called ubiquitous cloud computing. Among the most radical implications of this is how we consider the new landscape of globalization in an age where anything digital can theoretically be done anywhere. How do we decide where?

In a post today, he describes three strategies:

Follow the Sun:  As one time zone wakes up for another day of commerce and entertainment, the peak activities will migrate around the planet in a wave that follows the sun. While California crunches, India sleeps. And vice versa. Here the maximum computation and energy needs will be found nearest to the time zone in the sun. 

Follow the Moon:  If the costs and latencies of communication are smaller than computation, then the many huge data centers can be placed where energy costs are least. And no matter where they are, their loads will ordinarily be less at night. So India crunches to keep California awake. And vice versa. Therefore the least expensive computation will be a wave flowing around the globe at night, or following the moon. 

Follow the Law:  Perhaps neither energy nor communication costs will be the gating factor in the One Machine; rather it may be law. Differences in privacy laws, censorship, and national security fears may restrict places where data can flow freely. In that case computation will have to hopscotch around the world following the law. 

Most likely different industries adopt a different scenario. Maybe financial follows the moon, while commerce follows the sun, and entertainment follows the law.  A single computing environment (One Machine) should not suggest homogeneity. A meadow is not homogeneous, but its does act as a coherent ecological system.

To that legal point, I was recently chatting in Seattle with a guy who runs the largest collection of server farms in North America outside of Google--he actually owns many of the facilities that Amazon's EC2 service and Microsoft's cloud computing initiatives are running on. Like everyone in that business these days, he's all about finding cheaper electricity. But although his facilities are all in the Pacific Northwest, using clean and relatively cheap hydro power, he hasn't crossed the border into Canada, where the hydro power is even more plentiful.

Why not? Because of political instability. Canada's governments shift from right to left too often, he said, and the threat of regional secession was too real to risk putting multi-hundred-million-dollar data facilities there--between changes in the laws to even the slight risk of nationalization should the wrong person be elected, he thought Canada's political liabilities outweighed its energy assets. Surprised? I was. But right or wrong, that's the sort of calculus that's required in the new era of global data. Anything can be anywhere. Where do you want to go today? 

Comments

[stefano]

A follow up on "Follow The Law": could this (the attractiveness of following favorable regulatory environments) be what will make seasteading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading

take off?

[Xander Becket]

OK, I'm officially floored.

[peterme]

That man's take on Canadian politics is so flawed as to cast doubt on anything else he claims to know. I would be wary of trusting my data with a man so blinkered.

[doug]

All your blackberry traffic goes through RIM central in Waterloo, Ontario. When we nationalize RIM, we will control the United States Congress!! Bow to your Canadian overlords!! Nya ha ha ha ha!

[Alec Saunders]

That is hysterical! Let me guess. Before this wingnut went into the data center business he owned sugar factories in Cuba, right?

[Triona Carey]

This is poor reportage indeed. There is no attribution of source or justification for anonymity.

Shoddy journalism that implies all sorts of political weaknesses in Canada - as an Irish person living in the UK, I have no direct vested interest, just shocked that one of our web gurus is so sloppy in his work.

Deary me

[Chris Edwards]

Can I ask what the source was for the figure of 70MHz for the operating frequency of the brain. That seems pretty high given that signals passed by neurons are electrochemical and operate over periods of hundreds of microseconds.

The 70MHz surely can't be derived from Bruce Tainio's 'biofrequency' can it?

[From a Canadian]

Changes in Canadian government should not be a concern, the main reason their are not many data centres in Canada is the cost of bandwidth.

The backbone providers are few and the rates are huge which is why I run my servers out of the states.

If Manitoba had more backbone connections you would definitely see more data centres being built here due to the low cost of hydro power. We have crunched the math, weighted the risks (of having too few available connections) and have been unable to justify setting our servers up here.

[Chris Anderson]

Triona,

WTF? Who said this was "journalism" (whatever that means these days)? I had a private conversation with someone who wouldn't want his name mentioned and I respected that. This is my personal blog--"a public diary" as it says at the top--not the New York Times. If your high horse doesn't stoop to this form of casual writing, you may be happier elsewhere.

[Chris Anderson]

Chris,

RE: 70MHz, that's a question for Kevin, not me. I'm not the author of that piece.

[mizbiz]

Interesting post, as always, Chris. However, I do agree the guy's take on Canadian politics is off base. The Liberals have been in power for 13 of the past 16 years. Lots of wacky things can be said about the Canadian political landscape, but, the Seattle guy's interpretation is unfortunate.

[James Murfin]

Chris, can you share more about the company running the Amazon/Microsoft data centres? Fascinated by that business model and interested to learn more. Thanks, James.

[Steve C.]

Wouldn't someone WANT to diverisfy their dependence on resources? Sort of a server farm "hedge-fund" against changes over time.
The US, Canada, Mexico...all of these countries have political, financial, or technological differences and many of the advantages of one could off-set the disadvantages of another.

[gdr]

a wave flowing around the globe at night, or following the moon.

"Following the moon" is a really misleading way of saying "takes place at night" (since the moon only spends half of its time in the nighttime sky; the other half of the time it's in the daytime sky). "Following the moon" suggests some kind of monthly cycle.

[tenassian]

Wow, seriously Chris, that guy couldn't be more off base about Canada. Look at the swing in politics in the US from Clinton to war-mongering, economy destroying Bush and his Homeland Security and wiretapping, etc. I'd be much more worried about the US gov't pulling something in the name of "anti-terror" than the Canadian gov't. Nonetheless he's obviously doing something right if he's grown his business that big.
I agree with the poster above who suggests spliting all the datacenters between different countries/regions - aside from the cost, of course, and the management and legal headaches.

[kabin]

thanks...
Kabin
Konteyner