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6 posts from January 2009

January 30, 2009

From GeekDad Project to a Real Business

Img_4093About two years ago, my then-9-year-old and I worked on a cool project to program Lego Mindstorms to fly a RC plane, which we cheekily called a Lego UAV. (And were then, even more cheekily, accused of "weaponizing Lego"--UAVs are export controlled as weapons!) It worked, amazingly, and was a lot of fun.

Then, as sometimes happens, I got obsessed, while he moved on to other things. In the past two years, I've made cellphone UAVs, Basic Stamp UAVs, autonomous blimps, and a true gyros+acellerometers+GPS autopilot version of the Lego Mindstorms UAV that's now in the Lego Museum in Billund, Denmark. We set up an amateur UAV community at DIYDrones.com, and get thousands of people each day exploring this new dimension of aerial robotics.

Ardupilot_2

Now this project has gone pro. Our first commercial autopilot, the Arduino-compatible ArduPilot, has been released and our goal of taking an order or two of magnitude out of the cost of an autopilot has been achieved: it's $24.95!

Combined with a RC plane, this makes it easy to build a complete UAV for less than $500, which is really kind of amazing. As exciting as that it is, it's also sobering to know that a technology that was just a few years ago the sole domain of the military is now within the reach of amateurs, so we spend a lot of time educating our community on FAA regulations and safe and responsible flying (always under 400 feet, stay within line of sight, pilot always able to regain control).

Dsc04511ar_2

As for my kids, well, the technology pretty quickly went over their head (in all senses of the word), but they're still involved a bit: video taking, pointing the ground-based telemetry antenna at the plane, laughing at Dad when his plane crashes and being bribed with ice cream if they'll tag along for yet another test flight. Someday, maybe one of them will want to get involved with some aspect of this again--programming, hardware design, even piloting. But until then, this counts as another project that started GeekDad and ended all Geek ;-)

January 15, 2009

eMusic data contradicts UK study

[From my inbox this morn, data contradicting the Will Page analysis]

“eMUSIC SALES DATA SUPPORTS "LONG TAIL² CONCEPT
Approximately 75% of Tracks Sold In 2008
Catalogue Crosses Five Million
NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 15, 2009 eMusic, the world's largest retailer of
independent music and the first to sell DRM-free MP3s in Europe, today
announced that approximately 75% of eMusic tracks sold at least once during
2008 based on a recent analysis of worldwide sales data.  This finding
supports the existence of retail's "Long Tail² and contradicts a November
2008 study released by British licensing body MCPS-PRS.  That study claimed
that of the 13 million songs on the internet, ten million did not sell a
single copy.
The theory that the internet enables businesses to sell a large selection of
goods in small quantities to a large population of customers at minimum cost
was popularised as the "Long Tail² by Chris Anderson in a Wired magazine
article in 2004.  eMusic, which does not sell music from the four major
record labels, is a successful example of the theory.
"eMusic IS the Long Tail,² said Madeleine Milne, eMusic Managing Director,
Europe.  "Our customers buy music beyond the mainstream top 40 because we
provide them with more context than any other major music retailer through
Web 2.0 features, insightful editorial content, a passionate subscriber
community and an easy-to-use and effective recommendation engine.  And, we
reinforce the music discovery experience with subscription pricing that
encourages experimentation.²
The company also announced that its catalogue has surpassed five million
tracks.  In the previous year, the company has added titles from Righteous
Babe, Independiente and Wall of Sound in Europe and in the U.S., Saddle
Creek, Barsuk, Domino and more. In November, eMusic announced the sale of
250 million downloads since establishing its current subscription model in
2003.
Madeleine Milne will speak at MIDEM in Cannes on Tuesday, January 20 on the
"Indies and the Digital Landscape² panel.”

January 10, 2009

A business model for open source hardware

blimpduino2The price of a typical gadget reflects two factors: the cost of making it and the price its inventor is charging for the intellectual property in it. Often the second can be many times the first (as in the case of an Intel processor chip, for example, which costs just a few dollars to make but can sell for hundreds of dollars).

But if you don’t charge for intellectual property, gadgets can get a lot cheaper, and potentially reach a much larger market. That’s the philosophy behind “open source hardware”, and it’s something I’m practicing in one of my side projects, an aerial robotics community/company called DIY Drones that does autopilots and autonomous blimps (one of our blimp controller board shown above). We give away all the intellectual property (schematics, PCB files, firmware, software, assembly instructions, etc) but sell the completed units, charging only a set markup on the cost of the hardware itself, which we disclose.

But what’s the right markup that leads to the lowest cost for consumers and still makes money for us? That’s what we set out to find out. With the help of some open source hardware experts (Lenore Edman, Limor Fried and Phillip Torrone, plus this good overview), here’s the business model we settled on:

The Forty Percent Model 

This model is based on a simple rule: transparency about costs and a choice between paying us to make the product or doing it yourself.

The basic process is that we list all the components and other costs of our product (an autonomous blimp in this case) and links to where you can buy them yourself, along with instructions on how to put them together. If you want to do it yourself, or perhaps already have some of the parts and don’t need ours, go for it!

But if you want us to make it for you (guaranteed to work), because it’s easier, safer, quicker, etc, we would charge you a 66% markup, which give us 40% profit.

(Aside: People often confuse markup and margin. Think of it this way: if a product costs $1 and you mark it up to $1.66, you have a 40% profit margin. $0.66 is 40% of $1.66.) 

Let's say you want to make your own company and compete with us, charging a lower markup to undercut us in price. Excellent—consumers win! All of our source code and PCB/schematic files are open source and licensed to allow commercial use, and if someone else is making the products, it costs us nothing. If you can make it cheaper or better than us, that’s great—the market will grow and we’ll have more people using our stuff. The only requirement of the license is that you credit us for the design and link back to us.

The Third-Party Catch

Okay, the above is a great model when you’re just selling from your own website. But what if you want your product sold through third-party retailers, who can collectively have far greater reach than any one company? Then the economics get a little more complicated because you need two 40% profit margins, one for you and one for the retailer.

So the markups now go like this: $1 –>$1.66 –>$2.76. Furthermore, you must avoid “channel conflict” by undercutting your retail partners, so you need to charge pretty much the same price everywhere, including your own site. So your $1.66 product must now be priced at $2.76, which is a 64% profit margin for direct sales.

We thought that was too high and would feel like a ripoff when we disclosed all the costs to our customers. What to do?

The answer came in limiting our pricing transparency—we wouldn’t disclose our volume discounts. Because we buy in bulk, our costs are actually much lower than the single-unit costs that we post and would be available to a DIYer. So it’s not total transparency, only as much transparency as we can practically offer given the fact that those discounts change from order to order and suppliers don’t want the exact size of those discounts made public.

So we’ll post single-unit prices available to all, even though we actually pay less for most items. We can’t disclose how much less, but it should average about to 30-40%.

The final model: Semi-Transparent Pricing

This is what we settled on:

  1. Disclose the prices for components in single-unit quantities and link to sources people can buy from, but do not list our volume discount prices.
  2. Set our direct sales price as the sum of the single-unit prices (call that “apparent cost”) plus 66%. However, our actual costs are lower due to our volume discounts, so our actual margin is higher. The point, however, remains: we will only charge 66% more than it would cost you to DIY.
  3. Our wholesale price is the apparent cost, allowing retailers to add the 66% markup for themselves. Our own profit comes from the difference between the apparent cost and whatever our real cost is with volume discounts. The harder we push on those discounts, the more money we make.

January 08, 2009

And from my own mag yet!

From the issue of Wired that will be coming out in a week or so, this is one of those “Statgeist” funny infographics in the Start section. Think about it. It actually works incredibly well on all levels (the insult to the editor-in-chief notwithstanding):

stat

January 05, 2009

The best selling MP3 album of the year was free

image

Cool news: The best-selling MP3 album at Amazon in 2008 was Nine Inch Nails’ Ghosts I-IV, which was released free under a Creative Commons license.

The album made more than  $1.6 million in revenue for NIN in its first week, and hitting #1 on Billboard’s Electronic charts, Last.fm has the album ranked as the 4th-most-listened to album of the year, with over 5,222,525 scrobbles.

The Creative Commons blog notes:

NIN fans could have gone to any file sharing network to download the entire CC-BY-NC-SA album legally. Many did, and thousands will continue to do so. So why would fans bother buying files that were identical to the ones on the file sharing networks? One explanation is the convenience and ease of use of NIN and Amazon’s MP3 stores. But another is that fans understood that purchasing MP3s would directly support the music and career of a musician they liked.

The next time someone tries to convince you that releasing music under CC will cannibalize digital sales, remember that Ghosts I-IV broke that rule, and point them here.

[Hat tip to Phllip Torrone]

January 02, 2009

Guest post: Acting as a non-monetary economy

Adam Gurri wrote in with this excellent observation:

“When I think of something that is so abundant as to be available for free, I think of acting.

It's no secret that are are more actors in New York than there are productions to put them in.  Economics helps us understand the consequences of this to a certain extent; obviously a gigantic supply will result in lower wages per actor.  What interests me, however, is how this works in practice.  People think that a gigantic sector of a specific workforce could not possibly work for free, because they need to feed themselves and pay their bills, and so forth.

The thing about acting is that the labor force (actors) actually value the ability to do work in that field that they are willing to take on work for nothing and take on other jobs as a sort of cross-subsidy.  There is a sort of demand for employment in theater, which makes competition among actors so fierce as to actually drive down wages (at time of entry at least) to zero or near zero.

There is a parallel between this old story and what's going on in the content industries today, I think.  It used to be that professional economists, physicists, statisticians, historians, and software programmers were too busy doing their jobs to write about it for the general public.  As a result, newspaper and magazine writers--the majority of whom had no technical training or experience in these areas--none the less had a comparative advantage when it came to writing about these topics for broader audiences.

Today, the cost of writing on a blog that is out in the public to be seen by anyone interested in it is nearly nothing.  Russ Roberts can blog about economics, Google employees can blog about their projects, and so on.  The internet has made it possible for the content industries to look more like the acting industry: people giving away content for free because they enjoy it, while making money with a paying job.”

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The Long Tail by Chris Anderson

Notes and sources for the book

FREE will be available in all digital forms--ebook, web book, and audiobook--for free shortly after the hardcover is published on July 7th (exact dates will be announced here as each form is released). The ebook and web book will be free for a limited time, the unabridged audiobook will be available free forever.[Update: the first free versions have now been released.]

Order the hardcover now!