The Long Tail of Travel

For a recent speech to a travel company, we pulled together some data on the changing shape of travel due to low-cost carriers, online travel information and social-media driven word of mouth taking tourists beyond the usual top destinations. As in any industry that democratizes, you should see more diversity and the demand should be spread out over more “products”. In this case, that this would be driven by:

• Lowered flight costs = more travel, more risk-taking
• Lower “search costs” = broader vistas, more willingness to go off the beaten path
• Better word-of-mouth tools = “bottoms-up hits”
• Peer ratings, reviews reinforce authentic success, punish “manufactured experience”

Did it happen? Yep. Check this out: data on travel from the UK, from 1998-2008. Over that period, the top 50 destinations from the UK (the “head” of travel” fell from 36% of the total to just 26%, while everything else (the “tail”) grew.

 

This research was done by our own Maren Jinnett using data compiled by the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority. Maren’s spreadsheet is here, with a lot more data if you want to do your own analysis.

Some background reading:

--Travolution’s series on the Long Tail of Travel

--Orbitz’s CEO: Economics of travel’s Long Tail

Comments

[Pete Mortensen]

How were major destinations and everywhere else defined, however? Would a flight into Oakland not count as a flight into SFO? Would landing at Gatwick not be a flight to London? Is a flight to Ft. Lauderdale not Miami?

I agree Internet tech has made searching for alternative airports within a destination area incredibly easy, but I'm not ready to buy the bigger argument without slightly better definitions. If people are finding new ways to go to the same places, it changes the airline industry, but not travel, as such.

[drew patterson]

Chris,

well put; your data is unambiguous. i think it also highlights the need (as in many lifestyle categories) for editors to help consumers make sense of the number of choices. TripAdvisor is almost sure to have a review of the place I'm looking for. Kayak can provide me with prices to get there.

But as a consumer, where do I start? The number of options can be overwhelming. Tools like Jetsetter (in travel), Daily Candy, UrbanDaddy, Flavorpill, Very Short List, etc. become critical resources for discovery.

drew
(full disclosure, I work at jetsetter.com)

[marketing mix]

Wow, that's alot of data, and interesting to know. I agree with "Pete Mortensen" If people are finding new ways to go to the same places, it changes the airline industry, but not travel, as such. Maybe this will even out other forms of transport, and could benefit in some way?

[social bookmarking service]

Indeed, a lot of data. I still prefer to travel with a plane instead of car, train or bus. It's faster and sometimes cheaper.

[iPod Accessories]

I agree with "Pete Mortensen" If people are finding new ways to go to the same places, it changes the airline industry, but not travel, as such.

[Da]

very nice man. i would like even more information like what airlines would be the best to talk at low cost for north american and europe.

[Force Factor]

Your post is very interesting.

[Ed]

With the proliferation of content, and content aggregators, and search engines...we then need aggregators of the aggregators. It's like those Russian dolls that keep opening up into smaller dolls. Death by choice?

[Jim]

I'm curious as to what travel may become like in the next decade or so with our peak oil production well into the slippery slope of the bell curve. Will travel be by sail? Or is travel itself destined to become a mention in history books as a time when we spent our resources with abandon jumping on planes just to go see things?
Very intersting piece you've done. Thank you.
Jim

[Dan DubLi]

Pete Mortensen is right on ... the airline industry definitely changes when people are finding new ways to go to the same places.

[WebGirl]

That's a nifty graph. I really like how it includes the actual, or at least what I think to be the actual, flight paths curved shape, which is actually how we fly.

[Kitchen Magic]

Thanks for the blog.. I think this trend will also grow due to the strength of the pound to the euro most of people i know who usually take holidays to the canary islands etc are no looking at places like Turkey and Egypt.

[Company Formation Malta]

Wow, that's alot of data, and interesting to know. I agree with "Pete Mortensen"

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[مقاطع يوتيوب]

good yuo that democratizes, you should see more diversity

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[kevin]

Great done and keep posted. Looking forward to reading more from you.
Thank you

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[Christiano]

Ei! Como vai você? espero que bien! Eu encontrei seu blog navegando na web e enquanto estou por aqui aproveitar a oportunidade para recomendar uma nova página e eu achei que eu achei muito bom. É uma rede social de pessoas que gostam do esporte e do exercício. Ele tem muitas características úteis, você pode manter o controle de suas atividades e rotinas da sua alimentação e dieta, manter controle de suas refeições saudáveis. Você também pode acompanhar suas medições e calcular seu peso ideal de acordo com sua idade, seu sexo, sua altura e peso.

Espero que te sirva!

Tenha uma boa semana:)

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[jayz]

Very Nice Explanation about this.
thanks

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Interesting research study, thanks for sharing it.

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Thanx for the valuable information. This was just the thing I was looking for, I really like how it includes the actual curved shape flight paths. keep posting. Will be visiting back soon.

[Poor Man's Loans]

Very informative article. Thank You!

[Demark]

Air travel is most definitely the way to travel. There are little inconveniences once you arrive to your destination but at least the airplane ride gets you there faster. College Grants For Single Mothers

[Peter]

If people are finding new ways to go to the same places it is indeed interesting, but is the business of Ryanair. They use the smaller airports situated far from the main city. Stansted is an example for London.

People going to new places - can be because of recommandations online and the possibility to get cheaper tickets with the low price airlines - as mentioned in the article. But again it depends on the definition of new places, as mentioned above.

[Marcio Rocon]

I agree with "Pete Mortensen" If people are finding new ways to go to the same places, it changes the airline industry, but not travel, as such.

[Alexandra Levit]

Excellent post, Chris, and great points by Pete M. The proliferation of small airports and the widening of what's typically considered to be a "destination" is a great example of the long tail concept in effect.

Kind Regards,

Alexandra Levit
Columnist, Wall Street Journal
Author, New Job, New You
http://www.alexandralevit.com